Silicon materials are still lightly traded, and the price decline is expected to slow down

This week, the price range of domestic single crystal re-feeding is 150,000-182,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 178,200 yuan/ton; /Ton.

This week, the domestic polysilicon price continued its downward trend since November, among which the price of monocrystalline dense material fell from a high of 306,000 yuan/ton to the current 176,200 yuan/ton, a drop of 42.4%. The main reason for the continuous decline in the price of silicon materials in the past two months is that the 7-10 days of high inventory of silicon wafer companies in the early stage continued, and the operating rate can be flexibly adjusted. The actual demand and expected demand for silicon materials have weakened significantly. The increase in production expansion is still being released continuously, and the visible market oversupply situation has caused some companies with high potential inventory pressure to take the lead in making deals, resulting in a sharp drop in silicon material prices recently. The actual transaction situation in the polysilicon market this week is still relatively light. About 2-3 companies have signed actual orders. Most of the upstream and downstream companies are still in a stalemate. It is difficult to have a definite purchase demand when the price of the industrial chain is unstable and fluctuates greatly. Even if the price is reduced and the contract is signed, there is a possibility that the implementation will not be in place. Therefore, the transaction of silicon material is still light this week.

As of now, one of the two companies with production line maintenance in December has gradually resumed normal operation, and the other is expected to end the maintenance in mid-January. According to statistics from the Silicon Industry Branch, domestic polysilicon production in December was approximately 96,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.4%. In 2022, domestic polysilicon production will be approximately 811,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 65.5%. The net increase of 6,667 tons in December was 6,667 tons, part of which came from the release of Xinjiang Daqo and Inner Mongolia Tongwei after maintenance and resumption of production, and the other part from the commissioning or ramp-up of new production capacity such as Leshan GCL, Baotou Xinte, and Runyang New Energy. Two points should be paid attention to in the polysilicon market price in January: On the one hand, according to the production schedule of polysilicon and wafers in January, the domestic production of polysilicon is expected to be over 100,000 tons, and the import volume is about 8,000 tons. The terminal demand remains unchanged. Under the circumstances, the operating rate of silicon wafers in January will increase slightly due to the exhaustion of inventory in December, so that the demand for silicon materials will increase accordingly, with a month-on-month increase of about 10,000-15,000 tons. On the other hand, the inventory of silicon wafers has been exhausted this week, and the price of silicon wafers has basically bottomed out. The price decline of the industrial chain will gradually show signs of stabilization starting from the silicon wafers. Therefore, it is expected that the polysilicon link will be affected by oversupply, and the price will not rise in the short term. However, as the price of silicon wafers stops falling and stabilizes, overseas and domestic terminal photovoltaic projects will gradually start in the first quarter when the price of the industrial chain stabilizes. , coupled with demand support such as stocking up for the Spring Festival, the transaction activity of the polysilicon market will increase, and the backlog of inventory will gradually be digested, and the decline and speed of polysilicon prices will gradually slow down.


Source: Silicon Industry Branch