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Seven Dimensions Look at PV 2022 and Outlook 2023


After the festival, the new journey of photovoltaics in 2023 will start in full swing, the price fluctuation of the industrial chain will continue, and the upstream and downstream will compete fiercely... Here, we will summarize the "transcript" of 2022 and analyze the industry trend in 2023 accordingly.

 

1. New installation

Years ago, the national power industry statistics released by the National Energy Administration showed that in 2022, the new installed capacity of photovoltaics would be 87.41GW.

 

 

 

Judging from the installed capacity data of each month, after entering the second quarter, the new installed capacity in each month is relatively balanced, and there is still a wave of rush installation in the last month, with a rush installation scale of 21.7GW. From the perspective of installed capacity, distributed photovoltaics may still surpass centralized photovoltaics and occupy the main force of installed capacity.

In 2023, as the price of the upstream industry chain gradually returns to rationality, it will greatly stimulate the demand for downstream installed capacity, especially the recovery of demand for centralized ground power stations. According to the estimates of the National Energy Administration, the new installed capacity of wind and solar will reach 160 million kilowatts in 2023, continuing the 3:7 ratio of wind and wind in 2022, and the new installed capacity of photovoltaics in 2023 will exceed 110GW. Some consulting agencies also predict that in 2023, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China may exceed 130GW.

 

2. Cumulative installed capacity

By the end of 2022, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics will be 392.61GW. At the end of August last year, photovoltaic power surpassed wind power and became the third largest power source in the country.

 

 

 

In 2023, the National Energy Administration expects that the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach about 490GW, and photovoltaics will surpass hydropower to become the second largest power source in the country. However, what is incompatible with the huge installed capacity is that wind and photovoltaic power generation account for a small proportion of electricity consumption in the whole society. Promoting consumption and improving power quality will still be one of the major courses for the growth of wind and solar energy in the future.

 

3. Equipment bidding

With the high growth expectations of the "14th Five-Year Plan", photovoltaic bidding in 2022 will hit a new high again. Only statistics of public information show that in 2022, the bidding scale of modules and inverters will exceed 150GW and 120GW respectively. In the component bidding, the bidding capacity in January, September and December exceeded 20GW. The major bidders are concentrated in central state-owned enterprises. Among them, China Power Construction's photovoltaic module bidding scale in 2022 will exceed 33GW, followed by State Power Investment Corporation with about 24GW, and Huadian, China Resources Power, and China National Nuclear Corporation will exceed 10GW.

 

 

 

Inverter bidding also exceeds 20GW in September and December, and exceeds 10GW in June and July. The owner is led by China Power Construction, and the bidding capacity of 10GW includes Datang, State Power Investment, National Energy Group, Huadian, and China National Nuclear Corporation.

 

 

At the end of 2022, PowerChina took the lead in launching the 2023 equipment bidding. The bidding capacity of photovoltaic modules and inverters was as high as 26GW. While refreshing the largest bidding scale, it also sounded the clarion call for bidding in 2023, which coincides with the "14th Five-Year Plan" key In the year of 2019, the end owners who hit the target will also further engage in fierce games with equipment companies through the centralized procurement framework bidding.

 

4. EPC bidding

In 2022, the EPC bidding for photovoltaic power plants will exceed 120GW, of which the winning bid will be about 98GW. In terms of price, the average price of large EPC and small EPC of ground photovoltaic power station is 4 yuan/W and 1.37 yuan/W respectively.

 

 

 

For distributed photovoltaic power stations, the average prices of large EPC and small EPC are 4.13 yuan/W and 2.1 yuan/W respectively.

 

 

 

The public bidding scale of distributed photovoltaic EPC in the whole county is nearly 20GW, and the average prices of large EPC and small EPC are 3.8 yuan/W and 1.72 yuan/W respectively. (For the overall situation of EPC in 2022, Polaris will conduct a more detailed analysis, so stay tuned)

 

 

 

In 2023, as the price of the upstream industry chain stabilizes, the profitability of EPC vendors will also recover.

 

5. Photovoltaic price

The price of photovoltaics in 2022 can be described as "ice and fire": soaring into the sky and then plummeting. By the end of 2022, the prices of silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries, and components will all drop below the prices at the beginning of the year. However, in the third week of the first year of 2023, the entire industry chain stopped falling and rebounded.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After two years of price hikes caused by unbalanced production capacity, the industry is looking forward to a return to rational prices. However, supply and demand determine prices. In the new year, upstream and downstream prices will compete for the right to speak.

 

6. Module shipments

Facing the terminal directly, photovoltaic modules have become the most concerned industry field, and star enterprises gather together. As one of the important consideration indicators for photovoltaic module enterprises, the shipment volume has attracted much attention from the market. According to Polaris research, in 2022, the domestic TOP20 module companies will ship nearly 300GW, of which only the TOP10 companies will exceed 250GW.

 

 

Looking at the leading component companies, apart from the four leaders of LONGi, Jinko, Trina, and JA Solar who are leading in a fault-like manner, new forces such as Yiyi and Tongwei are making rapid offensives. With a new round of technological iteration, the module market structure in 2023 is full of variables.

 

7. Terminal owners

Photovoltaic power station investment developers are mainly central state-owned enterprises, especially the five major and four small groups, whose installed capacity accounts for "half of the country".

 

 

 

In 2022, due to high upstream prices, except for SPIC and China Guangdong Nuclear Power, most groups have not yet reached the average annual growth plan of the "14th Five-Year Plan" new energy target. However, the new energy indicators of the "five big and four small" have soared rapidly. According to Polaris statistics, in 2022, the five major power generation groups won the 100-gigawatt scenery indicator. 2023 is a critical year for the realization of the "14th Five-Year Plan", and it is also the year when the first batch of large bases and entire county projects are connected to the grid. The new energy investment of central state-owned enterprises is expected to accelerate.

Source: Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network (Exclusive)